Meanwhile in Ethiopia
Ethiopian forces capture Tigray's capital after civil war leaves the nation bleeding
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Last Monday, Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed gave the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) an ultimatum: realize “that you are at the point of no return” and surrender within 72 hours or face a military offensive in Mekelle, the regional capital. The TPLF refused to concede. Yesterday, Ethiopian government forces captured Mekelle after the city faced “fierce bombardment,” according to humanitarian sources and eyewitness accounts reported by CNN. In a tweet, Mr. Abiy announced that the “Federal government is now fully in control of the city of Mekelle,” adding that federal forces are continuing to detain “TPLF criminals” and will bring them to court.
It is unclear if the TPLF has surrendered. “Their brutality can only add (to) our resolve to fight these invaders to the last,” TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael told Reuters in a text message. When asked if that meant his forces would continue fighting, he replied: “Certainly. This is about defending our right to self-determination.” Debretsion said in another text message that their forces were withdrawing from around Mekelle.
The go-ahead on the “final phase” of the military offensive was announced on Thursday, with Mr. Abiy adding, “great care will be given to protect innocent civilians from harm.” Over the past three weeks, the region has witnessed the widespread killing of innocent civilians forcing thousands to flee to neighboring Sudan. This victory for Ethiopia comes after tensions between the federal government and the TPLF, a powerful political party from Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, devolved into a civil war. The politically and ethnically motivated violence is destabilizing the Horn of Africa and kindling fears of genocide in a nation led by 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize winner.
How the war began
Tensions have been simmering between the rival parties since September 9 when the Tigray region defied the federal government and held regional parliamentary elections. Mr. Abiy had postponed the general elections amid the coronavirus pandemic. Tigrayan politicians and other opposition party leaders, angered by the lack of consultation, believed that this was a way for Mr. Abiy to extend his term. Although there was no immediate intervention, Ethiopia’s upper house of parliament ruled the election as unconstitutional and denied the region budget support, which one Tigrayan official considered equivalent to “a declaration of war.”
Then, on November 4, Tigrayan forces attacked a regional military base. Declaring that the TPLF had crossed a “red line,” Mr. Abiy retaliated by deploying the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), engaging the federal government in a “military confrontation.” Accusing the TPLF of stealing military equipment, Mr. Abiy declared a six-month-long regional state of emergency and suspended electric, internet, and transportation services. "The army has been attacked from behind by its own citizens and many have been martyred, wounded and properties destroyed," Mr. Abiy said in a TV address. The TPLF claimed that the attack was an act of self-defense.
The information blackout had made it extremely difficult for news and humanitarian organizations to confirm exact happenings on the ground. Many reports rely on eyewitness accounts and state media.
Ethiopia proceeded to engage in a ruthless war with Tigrayan forces. Both sides have massive fighting capabilities: the ENDF has about 40,000-50,000 fighters as well as several fighter jets and missile systems. The TPLF has around 250,000 soldiers and access to a significant chunk of Ethiopia’s military equipment—enough to “mount a conventional war,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
TPLF’s impact on Ethiopian politics
Mr. Abiy implemented several reformation policies including ones that freed political prisoners, unblocked media channels, and privatized state-owned enterprises. He also resolved Ethiopia’s longstanding conflict with Eritrea, earning him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. But, his efforts to eradicate corruption targeted Tigrayan’s, and he removed many of them from positions of power. Tigray’s politicians said they were being used as “scapegoats” for the country’s problems. When Mr. Abiy invited the TPLF to join his Prosperity Party, which overtook the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), they refused.
Humanitarian toll
Mr. Abiy’s quest to squash the TPLF has left Ethiopia bloodstained and leaking as the U.N. reports over 40,000 people have fled to neighboring Sudan. A massacre in Mai Kadra, a town in Tigray, is a case study into the brutality that was underway. At least 600 people were slaughtered allegedly by local Tigrayan youths who went door to door fatally beating, hacking, and strangling people who identified as Amhara and Wolkait ethnic groups. A statement from the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said the killings are indicative of, “grave human rights violations which may amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes.” Witnesses told Amnesty International that after the ENDF and the government-allied Amhara Special Force defeated the TPLF in a military operation, TPLF forces sought revenge, leaving, “a lot of dead bodies soaked in blood on the streets.” Amnesty International could not independently verify who carried out the violence.
Exclusive from Foreign Policy: U.N. Fears Ethiopia Purging Ethnic Tigrayan Officers From Its Peacekeeping Missions
On Monday, the U.N. said it was “extremely concerned,” about the civilians caught in the conflict, as Ethiopian forces advanced toward Mekelle. Officials added that the relentless killing and mass displacement heightened the risk of war crimes being committed. Ethnic and religiously motivated attacks and profiling spark fears of genocide and ethnic cleansing, claim senior U.N. officials.
Meanwhile, in Sudan, refugee camps that are meant to house 5,000 people are almost double that capacity, according to Mohammed Rafik Nasri, field coordinator for emergency response at the UNHCR. Aid agencies are unable to access people stuck in Tigray, where the U.N. says there is a “very critical,” supply shortage. Human Rights Watch warned that “actions that deliberately impede relief supplies,” violate international humanitarian law.
Go deeper: Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: How the conflict could destabilize its neighbors
What comes next is unclear. Mr. Abiy says the government’s next task is “rebuilding what has been destroyed; repairing what is damaged; returning those who have fled, with utmost priority of returning normalcy to the people of the Tigray region.” After everything Ethiopia has seen these past few weeks, this could prove to be an immense challenge for a region in mourning.